The first half of 2021 has so far offered some significant opportunities for bitcoin bears to be wrong.
That drop of 27.5% in less than two weeks put bitcoin into bear market territory, at least as far as the normal definition of a bear market is concerned.
In the next two days, it would plumb weekly lows just below $30,000 before rallying to a new all-time high of $58,353.78 three weeks later.
Or, bitcoin could continue to repeat its 2021 pattern of setting a new all-time high, then falling back below recent averages only to set a fresh all-time high weeks later.
To be defined as a bull- or bear-market regime, a market condition has to last more than a few weeks.
As you can see from the chart above, based on our definition the duration of bull and bear cycles contracted between 2018 and 2020.
A cycle is defined as a period during which the 30-day moving average of the 30-day volatility does not move from one category to another.
After mostly getting longer from 2014 to 2018, these cycles became a lot shorter in 2019 and have stayed relatively short.
Bitcoin could be in for a long, cool spring of modest new all-time highs followed by sudden dips.
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies.