From 2017 to 2019, Chad Green was one of the most consistent arms out of the Yankee bullpen, and one of the better relief pitchers in baseball.
Green owned the top of the zone with an overpowering, high-spin fastball, complimented by a solid slider.
Like many pitchers who aim for strikeouts with fastballs at the top of the zone as their primary weapon, the pitch can result in a blend of exclusively high-risk and high-reward outcomes: strikeouts and extra base hits .
Of further interest: It seemed as though batters might have begun to grow accustomed to the rising effect of Green’s four-seamer, as their xSLG against the pitch crept up from .261 in ‘17, to .391 in ‘18, and to .429 in 2019.
Then, in 2020, Green ditched his horizontally breaking slider for a slurve/curve with greater North-South action, which appeared to improve the deceptive efficacy of his already awesome fastball.
At the time, Green was so dominant that I argued that he had the best fastball on the Yankees, even more so than that of either Gerrit Cole or Aroldis Chapman.
While it’s possible that Green’s new breaker caught Major League Baseball off guard, it’s all the more likely that the truncated schedule of the 2020 season resulted in some unrepeatable, wonky stats.
This comes coupled with his career-high Barrel% of 15.1, way worse than his previous high water mark of 11.6 percent, and almost double last season’s rate of 8.3 percent.
Across the board, Green’s pitches grade out as identical to those of last season, approximating the break, spin, and whiff rate of last season despite having resulted in a radically different batted ball profile.