Upbeat news about the growth of the UK organic food market can be misleading

Cesar Revoredo-Giha and Adelina Gschwandtner analyse the data and find that in the case of organic meats, higher prices can explain the increase in sales, since quantities have been decreasing.

In terms of organic livestock production, in comparison with conventional production, this is characterised by access to outside space, lower stocking density, no growth promoters, longer withdrawal periods and on-farm feed production.

Moreover, it contrasts with the frequently shown upbeat news regarding the sector such as “UK Organic Food and Drink sales boom during lockdown” .

For beef, lamb and pork situations are quite similar — characterised by trends that show an increase in price and decrease in quantities purchased.

In the case of beef, the annualised average monthly growth rate of prices for the entire period was 3.3%, whilst the same rate for beef quantities was -10.5%.

Whilst trends in prices and quantities are important, market shares are also relevant, because they indicate the degree of penetration of organic products in households.

In our view, the data show the need—if there is an interest in promoting the growth of the organic sector—to develop its supply chain, simultaneously expanding the demand and increasing the supply of the sector.

The ‘Action Plan for the development of the organic sector: on the way to 2030’ is an important part for the European Green Deal, which stands at the centre of the European Commission’s policy agenda towards a sustainable and climate-neutral Europe.

The actual measures proposed by the EC to address the above points encompass encouraging organic farming and its logo, promoting the use of organic products in canteens and as part of school schemes, and facilitate the contribution of the private sector, which are a necessary combination of push and pull.

An additional cost for the organic sector is to demonstrate that it has followed all the required protocols, and of course there are all the issues related to information asymmetry and avoiding fraud .

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