That is not the thinking now.
But overall, several of the states up for grabs were very close in 2020, and the slightest push in the GOP’s direction could tip the balance.
As it is, Republicans have an advantage this year because traditionally midterm elections are lower-turnout affairs and the party out of power is able to more easily turn out its base, angry with the president.
The analysis is based on reporting in the field, conversations with Democratic and Republican operatives and strategists, as well as publicly available data, such as ad spending and polling.
The top of this top 10 is difficult, but an open seat in a state Biden won, where Republicans are facing a messy primary, is a place to start.
John Fetterman has a big lead in the Democratic primary and is raising lots of money while Republicans have spent millions against each other.
They have already spent tens of millions of dollars, as have outside groups, and this is expected to be one of the most expensive races in the country.
Georgia has seen lots of close and heated political fights in the last few years as the Sun Belt continues to change demographically.
Walker has written about his battle with dissociative identity disorder and is facing allegations of domestic abuse from past relationships and that he exaggerated his post-football business success.
Nevada is one of those states that always seems to be close — Biden won it by just over 2 percentage points in 2020 and Cortez-Masto won it by a similar margin in 2016 when she had the benefit of presidential-year turnout.
And Democrats traditionally have a strong turnout operation in a state where most of the Democratic vote is concentrated in one place — Clark County .
Trump endorsed Laxalt, who has backed Trump’s election lies, including in Nevada, which Trump lost by more than 33,000 votes.
Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson, a close Trump ally and antagonist of the left, is the most vulnerable GOP senator up for reelection this cycle.
Biden won Wisconsin in 2020, but only by about 20,000 votes out of more than 3 million, and, reflecting the trend nationally, his approval rating in the state is upside down.
Mandela Barnes, who starts out with a name ID and polling advantage, and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 34, who worked in the Obama White House, is the son of Bucks owner Marc Lasry and appears willing to spend some of his own money on this race.
But in a difficult environment for Democrats and in a state that was decided by only about 10,000 votes in the 2020 presidential election, this one is shaping up to be close.
Their top candidates are state Attorney General Mark Brnovich and two others who are far wealthier and whose campaigns have more money — Blake Masters, a former venture capital executive, and Jim Lamon, a former owner of a solar energy company.
Trump is a factor in this race.
Republicans are looking to use the Biden administration’s reversal of Title 42, which turned away migrants due to COVID concerns, against Kelly.
Hassan has some advantages, however — notably money and an uncertain Republican primary field, which won’t be decided until a September primary.
Lots of candidates are in or eyeing the race, including Chuck Morse, the state Senate president; Bruce Fenton, a wealthy Bitcoin enthusiast with a libertarian streak; retired Army Gen.
Cheri Beasley, the first Black woman to serve as chief justice on the state Supreme Court, is expected to prevail in the May 17 primary, while Republicans are still undecided between Trump-backed Rep.
Republicans see Beasley as a weak candidate and point out this is a state Biden lost in 2020 and his approval rating has nosedived here to below 40% and is underwater on his handling of issues, ranging from COVID and education to the economy and Ukraine.
This has been a state that has trended away considerably from Democrats in the last few presidential elections as the party has struggled with white, working-class voters.
Former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and investment banker Mike Gibbons got in each other’s face and had to be separated at a debate last month over Gibbons’ investment record and Mandel’s inexperience in the private sector, which led to Mandel bringing up his military service in Iraq.
Mandel has had national ambitions for a while but he’s a controversial figure who failed in a Senate bid in 2012 and dropped out during the 2018 primary.
There are millions of dollars in ads coming from the candidates , super PACs and dark money groups in this race, and with the polls as close as they are, it’s not entirely clear where this primary is headed.
Democrats have lost Florida in presidential elections by increasingly wider margins since Barack Obama won it in 2008.
She was on pace in fundraising with Rubio, as of the end of the year, in this very expensive state because of its multiple media markets.
If the wave is big enough, this could be one that becomes competitive.
Over the weekend, Hanks won his spot on the ballot for the late June primary by getting the most votes at the Colorado GOP state assembly.
“I fully expected Donald Trump to win in 2020 — and he did,” Hanks, who was in Washington on Jan.