The Titans haven’t clinched anything yet, but they can secure the AFC South title as early as Sunday if the Colts lose to the Cardinals.
What follows is a preview of our weekly snapshot of the NFL’s playoff picture, incorporating ESPN’s Football Power Index and a bit of our own instincts to give you a sense of the stakes.
They no longer have to worry about losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chargers, and they can clinch the AFC West this weekend with a win over the Steelers and a Chargers loss to the Texans.
Even if the Colts win, the Titans will clinch a playoff spot with losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Broncos, Browns and Steelers, or losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Broncos, Browns and Ravens.
To clinch a playoff spot, the Patriots would need to win and get either losses by the Raiders and Chargers, or losses by the Colts and Bengals, or losses by the Colts, Ravens and Steelers, or losses by the Colts and Chargers, or losses by the Ravens, Browns and Steelers.
Neither would clinch the division title with a win, but it will obviously be a huge leverage game for both teams. If the Bengals win, their one-game lead in the win/loss column would really be a two-game lead because of the permanent head-to-head tiebreaker.
A division title is still a longshot — the FPI gives the Colts a 9% chance to do it — but at least they are not eliminated from it at this point.
They had a legitimate chance to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West last week, and it remains a statistical possibility going forward, but it’ll require help from a Chiefs team that has developed a bunch of experience in closing out postseason position during the past few years.
The Patriots are favored in that game for a number of reasons, and rightfully so, but if you had told the Bills a few weeks ago that they would have a chance to retake the division lead in late December, they would have considered themselves fortunate.
The Ravens are so decimated by injuries and COVID-19 losses that coach John Harbaugh has felt compelled to go for a game-winning 2-point play twice in the past three weeks rather than take his chances in overtime.
Sunday’s matchup at the Chiefs, the hottest team in football, is not the kind of game they want while trying to stay within a reasonable distance of the race.
The FPI now gives the Raiders a 10% chance of advancing to the postseason.
They have followed a seven-game losing streak with a six-game winning streak and have another winnable game on Monday at the Saints.
The Broncos’ playoff chances are now 9%, according to the FPI.
Now they’ll turn their attention to winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; they’re 6-0 at Lambeau Field this season and 19-3 there in three regular seasons under coach Matt LaFleur.
And they can secure the division title even if they lose to Washington — that will happen if the Eagles lose to the Giants or if the Cowboys clinch a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Eagles.
They’ll do so if the Vikings and Eagles lose, or the Vikings lose and the Cowboys win, or the Vikings lose and the Cowboys clinch at least a tie in their strength of victory tiebreaker with the Eagles.
They’ve tumbled as far down the NFC standings as they could, at least while still holding on to the NFC West lead.
Tuesday’s victory over the Seahawks pulled the Rams into a tie with the Cardinals in the NFC West, but the Rams remain behind the Cardinals in the standings because of Arizona’s better winning percentage in the division.
7 spot, but there does not appear to be a scenario in which they’d get knocked out of the top seven.
The Saints secured a huge victory in Week 15 that will help them in myriad tiebreakers, including division and conference record, and it’s worth noting that they don’t have another game scheduled against a team that currently has a winning record.