In 2018 I analyzed the NYSE Bitcoin Index as I was stimulated in part after reading a projection in March 2018 that it would rise from around $8,500 to $30,000 by the end of 2018.
I have found pivot analysis to be a useful tool when applied to a wide range of financial markets.
For example, the yearly pivots for 2022 are based on the high, low and closing levels in 2021.
Let’s look at the 2018 analysis in terms of yearly pivots as $NYXBT closed below the 2018 yearly pivot at 11,368 the week ending January 22, 2018, point b.
In 2018, my analysis indicated a key level of Fibonacci support was at $7,376, line a that was violated a week after the article was posted.
On Friday, April 29th 2022 I saw the headline “Experts Say Bitcoin Could Hit $100,000 …” so in my view this warranted a new technical appraisal.
In technical analysis when a resistance level is overcome it then becomes support and conversely if a support level is broken it then becomes resistance.
The weekly chart shows a shallow uptrend, line c, and a weekly close below $34,349 would be a sign that the downtrend had resumed.
As BTCUSD was peaking in November of 2021 at $68,978 and forming higher highs, line a, the MACD-His was giving a different picture.
The MACD-His dropped below the zero level four weeks later on November 29th, 2021 which was a sign of weakness.