Last month, in the run-up to Joe Biden’s Earth Day climate summit, Boris Johnson announced a new legally binding pledge committing the UK to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 78% by 2035, compared with 1990 levels.
Because it means that the government is “front-loading” the bigger slice carbon removal and battery storage technologies – and that the concept is counterproductive if it encourages the world to carry on emitting in the belief that technology will save us eventually.
According to Johnson, who is keen to grab the opportunity for global leadership presented by the UK’s hosting of the COP26 climate summit later this year, it is “the most ambitious target to cut emissions in the world”.
In particular, decarbonising home heating – along with heavy industry, transport and food production – is going to be more difficult and more expensive than shifting the UK energy production system away from coal and into renewables.
Estimates in the UK range from the Treasury’s 2019 estimate of about £1trn , the independent body that advises the government, now forecasts the overall cost will be around 0.5% of GDP by 2050 – a fall from its original estimate of 1%-2%.
That’s especially true if the new target means the government adopts the CCC’s proposal to ban the sale of homes by 2028 unless they achieve a “C” rating in an Energy Performance Certificate.
Some commentators, such as the Financial Times’ Martin Sandbu, believe this is all easily do-able with existing technology and that success will feel like “day-to-day living going on much as it did before”.