India on Saturday, April 16, questioned the World Health Organisation’s methodology to estimate COVID-19 mortalities in the country, saying using such mathematical modelling cannot be applied to estimate the death figures for such a vast nation of geographical size and population.
The model gives two highly different sets of excess mortality estimates of when using the data from Tier I countries and when using unverified data from 18 Indian states.
During these exchanges, specific queries have been raised by India along with other member states — China, Iran, Bangladesh, Syria, Ethiopia and Egypt — regarding the methodology, and use of unofficial sets of data.
The Global Health Estimates 2019 on which the modelling for Tier II countries is based, is itself an estimate.
WHO has conveyed that a combination of these variables was found to be most accurate for predicting excess mortality for a sample of 90 countries and 18 months .
India has maintained molecular testing as preferred testing methods and used Rapid Antigen as screening purpose only.
But, it is actually impossible to quantify various measures of containment in such a manner for a country like India, as the strictness of such measures have varied widely even among the states and districts of India.
“In addition, subjective approach to quantify such measures will always involve a lot of biasness which will surely not present the real situation.