‘In the Heights’ Box Office Will Be a Key Moment for Theaters

The preopening predictions of its gross — inexact these days, since they mostly poll the more limited audience that already has returned to theaters — suggest under $15 million.

The top 15 films this year to date fit that description, with the highest gross for anything different only $15 million .

Per Motion Picture Association annual figures, Latinos represent 23 percent of tickets sold, ahead of their 19 percent share of the population.

The Mexican-American community is the largest, but distinctive subcultures from Central and South America surround them.

Two things to watch for — how strong the non-Latino interest is, and then if the Latino interest is strong across all groups.

This is the rare wide release title this year to have all the elements — excellent reviews, originality, older characters, mainstream media attention — that draw occasional older moviegoers into theaters.

This audience, particularly when upscale, and curious about specialized film, has been lagging in their return to theaters.

As always, we will get limited data on viewing at the streamer as well as possible new subscribers.

While opening weekends have greatly improved, since theaters have come close to full operation and are playing all titles, their holds in subsequent weekends have generally been greater than normal.

“Heights” could test this.

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