But it will likely be a tighter battle in Nanaimo–Ladysmith, which Paul Manly won in a byelection in 2019. He was then re-elected six months later, but in both cases the Conservative and NDP candidates weren’t so far behind.
The NDP won them by between 3,000 and 8,000 votes over the Green Party or Conservatives last election, so they will likely be competitive again. Aside from being close, they’re also ridings where different parties have different areas of support — usually divided along age and income lines, but not always.