Our new reports suggest that by the end of 2021, global fossil carbon emissions will reach 36.4 billion metric tons of CO2, a rise of approximately 4.9 percent compared to 2020.
Some people hoped that the record drop in emissions last year would mark the beginning of the sustained decline in carbon emissions needed to keep global average temperature increases below 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius.
If the goal is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, we now have at most a decade’s worth of CO2 we can release into the atmosphere, based on current emissions.
Of all fossil fuels, coal and natural gas use contributed the most to this year’s emissions rebound, mainly in the industrial and power sectors.
India’s fossil carbon emissions will jump almost 13 percent this year, just above 2019 levels, attributable to increases in its power sector that outweigh combined decreases that linger in its industrial and transport sectors.
Its estimated fossil emissions in 2021 are 11.2 billion tons of CO2, an increase of about 4 percent compared with 2020 emissions and 6 percent higher than in 2019.
Aviation comprises only a few percent of global fossil carbon emissions, though, so even a decline by half this year is relatively modest in terms of absolute emissions .
Moreover, almost two dozen countries that contribute about a quarter of global fossil carbon emissions saw their emissions decline significantly in the decade of 2010–2019 prior to COVID-19.
What will happen in 2022? We can’t rule out a further rise in emissions, particularly if transportation returns to prepandemic levels and coal use remains near 2021 levels or, worse, rises further.
Policy makers need to redouble efforts to shape emissions reductions more equitably in the future, without the economic disruption felt mostly by the global poor.
Pledges to end deforestation could reduce five or more billion tons of carbon dioxide pollution a year, while preserving global biodiversity.