In any given European club season, it can take weeks or even months to get an accurate read on a given team, its strengths and its weaknesses.
In the early stages of a tournament like this, it can be tricky to figure out what we’re seeing and what we’ve learned.
The lack of practice time, combined with a multiround, single-elimination tournament, can produce a desire to play lowest-common-denominator ball: defend well, take few risks, hope a talented attacker does something awesome at some point, and advance.
In the past 55 years, the home of catenaccio reached the finals of four World Cups and three Euros, winning two of the former and one of the latter, while defending its heart out .
Among these four leagues, only Bayern Munich averaged more goals than the trio of Atalanta, Inter Milan and Napoli, and each of the top five teams in the table averaged at least 1.95 goals per match.
Their central defense is, to put it charitably, old — 34-year-old Leonardo Bonucci and 36-year-old Giorgio Chiellini are the primary centre-backs, though Chiellini will miss Italy’s third group-stage match Sunday with a minor injury — but has only been required to put out a few fires, as opponents have attempted only nine shots, one on goal.
Storied manager Roberto Mancini has been on the job for more than three years, and his familiarity with his personnel — and their familiarity with what is being asked of them — shines through.
A four-match knockout round assures some major randomness in the tournament’s late stages, and after a third group match against Wales with not much on the line for either side, it could only take a single lapse to knock them out of the tournament.
England’s Euros roster includes Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane, Manchester City’s Phil Foden and Raheem Sterling, Borussia Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham, Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish, Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford, Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka.
Neither Deschamps’ France nor Southgate’s England have lost a match, and both are almost mathematically certain to advance to the round of 16.
But unlike Italy, neither France nor England are playing in ways that allow their biggest matchup advantages to give them, well, advantages.
France did attempt 15 shots against Hungary in Saturday’s 1-1 draw, but only four found their target, and their only goal was not the product of wonderful buildup and incisive play.
Again, things are technically fine, but even if both squads play their way into the tournament and slowly find their attacking form, something particularly egregious has stood out: In a year in which so many guys have played the most minutes of their respective careers, having five substitutions to work with can be vital and provide the deepest teams with additional advantages.
He made only three changes for a combined 28 minutes of action against Croatia, and only two subs for 43 minutes in the Scotland stalemate.
In the second of Group F’s three heavyweight-vs-heavyweight matchups, Germany played on the front foot , and while Portugal did pull off some promising counter-attacking opportunities, they also had some long runs of possession in attack.
Heading into the tournament, it was basically the top eight and everyone else — France, England, Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Netherlands all had betting odds between +450 or higher.
• Austria .
• Denmark : In their first two matches, the Danes have attempted 43 shots to their opponents’ seven, and while plenty of shots have been low-quality, they’ve still created 3.86 xG to opponents’ 1.33.
• Switzerland : They significantly outplayed Wales, dominating the ball, taking 18 shots to Wales’ nine and generating 1.79 xG while allowing 0.51.
They just want to defend in an old-school 4-4-2, quickly get the ball the hell out of their end and hope that either Real Sociedad’s Alexander Isak, RB Leipzig’s Emil Forsberg or Krasnodar’s Marcus Berg makes great use of limited attacking opportunities.
As a general rule, “post crazy scoring numbers in a lesser league and play well for club and country in European competitions” is a slam dunk combination for getting yourself noticed.
First, he sent in a game-tying header on a set-piece late against Netherlands; then, he made a perfectly-timed run into space against North Macedonia before slotting the ball home nicely for the game-clinching score.
ESPN’s Soccer Power Index gives Ukraine a 95% chance of reaching the round of 16, so Yaremchuk’s showcase could last a little longer, too.
Playing for Tottenham against Inter Milan in the Champions League, he ran around, past and through Maicon, one of the world’s best right-backs at the time, on the way to a hat trick.
He fell out of favor in Madrid, barely playing 1,000 league minutes in 2019-20; he got loaned back to Spurs this season, but played only 923 minutes.
He had averaged only 0.77 during his dynamic 2012-13 season! And in 180 minutes in the Euros, Bale has already contributed two assists among five chances created.
He still has all of his technical skill, and he has replaced pace with a crafty, all-encompassing Old Man Game.
My own personal, aesthetic request is that he land on a team that doesn’t press much, plays a more reactive style, plants him in a more central attacking role and allows him to become a master facilitator.
ESPN’s Soccer Power Index thinks very highly of Spain at the moment, giving it a 90.3 rating — the highest of anyone in Europe.
Their plodding possession, however, means they alternate between two different types of results: big wins and plodding draws against teams capable of staying organized and tight defensively.
Twenty of their 29 shots have come under what StatsPerform defines as “moderate to high pressure.” That’s the price of playing against packed-in defenses.
They had five shots on goal against Poland, worth 2.1 xGOT , and Poland’s Wojciech Szczesny saved four of them.
The longer they can advance through this tournament — and SPI still gives them an X% chance of advancing to the round of 16 — the more likely those balls will start finding the net.
I’ve seen a decent amount of teeth-gnashing when it comes to the Euros’ format, in which a 36-match group stage only eliminates eight teams before the four-round, 16-team knockout round takes over.
Conceptually, all of this is true, but in 24 matches thus far, we’ve seen only two nil-nil draws , and in Spain-Sweden, Spain attempted 17 shots and generated 2.0 xG.
The format has been a plus so far, and that’s before we get to the aesthetic value: With more teams playing four matches instead of three, we get more complete stories for a lot of teams and players beyond the normal favorites.