If bitcoin breaks the line that connects its higher-lows from the past 18 months, I think it’s toast.
It makes perfect sense that bitcoin would be one of the last Covid bubbles to pop as the Federal Reserve tightens the economy.
Bitcoin is offering no portfolio diversification, doing the opposite of gold , and losing more than the stock market since their respective peaks.
It was fizzling out in 2018 when the Fed was barely tightening and couldn’t make new highs until policymakers dumped the Covid rescue package onto the market, injecting enormous amounts of cash and seemingly corroborating the most important crypto myth that central banks exist purely to pump asset prices.
More likely, a crash now would begin a descent that eventually tests the lows from 2018 where there was some decent equilibrium for almost five months .
As I’ve always maintained, if bitcoin can rally in a rising-rate environment, I’ll drop my bearish bias.