The expected small contraction in global gas demand compares with the IEA’s earlier forecast of 1% growth in the previous quarterly update published in January.
While there are no legal restrictions on importing Russian natural gas to the European Union at this point, the war has pushed EU governments to seek to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible.
The prices were also boosted by Russia’s moves, even before its invasion of Ukraine, to drastically reduce short-term gas sales to Europe, which had left European storage levels 17% below their five-year average at the start of the European heating season.
Russia is Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, meeting 33% of the region’s demand in 2021, up from 25% in 2009.
But they are nonetheless being affected by the wider economic impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine including rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power and lower investment due to dented business confidence.