The last week of March was a rough week for the grains as traders continued to trade headlines.
On March 28, China was in and bought 132,000 metric tons of old crop soybeans while an unknown destination bought 128,000 metric tons of corn split evenly between old and new crop.
What was interesting in the stocks estimate was that a majority of the wheat and soybeans are being held off farm while a majority of the corn is on farm.
Spring wheat acreage and corn acreage were much lower than expected and those two markets will need to try to acquire more acres this spring.
Winter wheat acres were estimated at 34.24 million, 146,000 less than expected but 588,000 above last year.
Other spring wheat acreage was estimated at 11.2 million, 600,000 below expectations and 220,000 below last year.
There did not seem to be enough of a price incentive above spring wheat to see an increase in durum acreage, but there must be as North Dakota is increasing acreage 11% and Montana is up 25%.
A look at major states has: Iowa: -2%, Illinois: -3%, Nebraska: -2%, Minnesota: -7%, South Dakota: +1%, and North Dakota: -12%.
A look at the major states has: Illinois: +4%, Iowa: +3%, Minnesota: +5%, North Dakota: -3%, Missouri: +7%, and South Dakota: +5%.
Taking the acreage estimate that was released on March 31 and putting it into the supply and demand table from the Ag Outlook Forum from February, ending stocks for both wheat and corn are projected to get down into concerning levels.
In other market news, the Biden administration is opening up the crude oil reserves and will dump 1 million barrels of crude on the market for the next six months, bringing a maximum 180 million barrels of reserve oil out on the market.
With the recent heavy snow in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota and continued rain events in the Corn Belt, it appears that the start of 2022 planting season has been pushed back.
Wheat got a shot in the arm at the start of April due to much lower than expected crop ratings from USDA’s first Crop Progress report for the 2022 season.
Hard red spring wheat planting has started, with 3% of the crop estimated to be in the ground as of April 3, versus 2% average.
The Federal Reserve talk of increasing interest rates a half a point in their next meeting and the increasing cost for energies continues to eat up the disposable income of the consumer.