The day before, prices had spiked amid fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would disrupt one of the world’s most productive breadbaskets.
The outbreak of war in Europe, and the ensuing volatility in the global commodities market, was giving him a feeling in his gut.
And if the war was going to create uncertainty, best to stick with what you can grow well — which in his case means devoting half his fields to canola and soybeans, and the rest to hard red spring wheat, yellow peas and corn.
And if food becomes even more scarce and expensive, it will have an adverse effect on developing nations that depend on Ukraine and Russia’s crops, said Ted Bilyea, who serves as a distinguished fellow at the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute.
“We’ve got lots of issues and we didn’t need this Ukraine thing.
Russia and Ukraine account for 29 per cent of the world’s wheat exports, and 19 per cent of corn exports, Reuters reported this week.
“I don’t think that any ship owners will risk sending their vessels to the region,” said Sizov, managing director of the Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon.
The uncertainty drove up wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade, which hit a level not seen since 2008 on Thursday before falling on Friday, according to Reuters.
Even if crop prices jump this year, agriculture leaders this week warned that the war will also drive up fuel and fertilizer costs, since natural gas is a main input in the production of fertilizer.
Farmers, especially in Western Canada, may be wary of locking in prices for their crops with buyers so early in the year.
Todd Lewis, interim vice-president at the Canadian Agriculture Federation, said western farmers are banking on healthy rains to bounce back from last year’s drought.
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