Therefore, promoting the transition of energy away from fossil fuels to reduce energy-related carbon emissions is at the heart of the climate change challenge.
Based on the International Monetary Fund projection of China’s future growth, capping CO2 emissions at 10.6bn tonnes by 2025 – compared to 9.9bn tonnes in 2020 – would allow China to achieve the carbon intensity target.
The lack of an absolute cap on China’s carbon emissions is, therefore, a key gap in its climate targets, creating significant uncertainty at home and internationally.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, boosted by a strong economic recovery, surging demand and interruptions to coal supply led to electricity supply shortages in many regions of China.
Its current energy policy framework has been emphasising “dual-control”, with a cap on total energy consumption rather than on fossil fuel energy consumption.
China is now leading the world in renewable development, with its cumulative installed wind capacity and solar capacity taking up a global share of 39% and 36%, respectively.
China’s engagement in the climate agenda is often viewed through a domestic policy lens.
As set out in more detail in our recent paper, there is potential for China to play a bigger role in global climate governance.