There are now more than 2 mln people on these benefits – although on a seasonal and population adjusted basis this is the lowest level in almost 50 years .
And that may mean three rather than two rate hikes in 2022, with the first in March when their bond buying will probably end.
Having said that, the December rise caps a very good year of inflows exceeding +NZ$250 bln, although this is now being driven by inflows from Belt & Road partners.
The global impacts on supply-chains won’t be helped by this as congestion is growing at the world’s biggest port as shippers try to re-route goods.
Outbound freight rates for containerised cargoes from China are rising again, which is not a good sign.
This is an historically high level even if it is slightly lower than for the prior two months and is +16% higher than for December 2019.
Back in 2006, the World Economic Forum produced a Global Risk Report that warned of a global pandemic threatening jobs and disrupted global trade along with social unrest leading to political polarisation and global tensions.
In the meantime, we can note that the copper price has risen above US$10,000 per tonne again, tin is now above US$40,000/tonne for the first time ever, and nickel is back over US$22,000 and a decade high.
More than 10% of the Australian workforce may be off the job due to Omicron isolations now the Australian Treasury is estimating and that is having a serious impact on basic services, including supplying supermarket shelves.
In NSW, there were 30,541 new community cases reported yesterday, and a hope that they are topping out, now with 337,818 active locally-acquired cases and 6 new deaths.
Their 1-5 curve is slightly flatter at +103 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is little-changed at +169 bps.
Yesterday, Tokyo fell back a full -1.0% after the prior day’s large rise, Hong Kong held theirs, up +0.1% while Shanghai fell -1.2%.
Buying only safe and liquid as the banking system has done the past few years , and without any change in derivatives offered, in fact fewer since Euro$ #4 in 2019, there was never any money for inflation in 2021 or beyond.
Banks work as any real economy business does on a budget; only theirs isn’t just about payrolls costs and operating expenses.
In the ledger system, there’s no need for real physical money like bullion or vault cash since convertibility isn’t actually an issue for fictional currency and ghost money.
I get it, Ok ,I am a gardener by trade , keeping all those central city residential grounds ,looking fine and dandy,to help support the extreme valuations but ,simple as I am ,and un-propertied,yeah ,I get it.
yeah , its a great feeling doin work for people getting all those tax free gains.
So right Sloarb, in fact i was gardenerto a certain recent central city LABOUR LIST MP , and when i said that labour were just SHILLS, firstly She said she didn’t know what a shill was ,and i told her to get up to speed as she would soon be in the job in parliament, and secondly ,i got dumped ,no more work for me, from the Chardonnay socialist , Speak truth to power? Cost me directly….
Kjeldorian ,i fire every d!ckhead,i encounter, maybe your sort wouldnt even get a returned call,who knows? It is what i would call a constructive dismissal of a dckhead client in fact ,and i call out hypocrisy wherever i find it.
If u have Capital of $10 and assets of $200, you are in a far more vulnerable position to me if I have $100 in Capital and $200 in assets.
Good Morning from #Germany where banking watchdog urges risk buffer as property mkt overheats.
“This raises the risk of an economy-wide downturn if it creates a positive-feedback loop in defaults through the process known as a deflationary spiral.
Of course, most of the powers that be are on holiday while many of us either worked through or went back to work a week ago.
Because making credit hard to get means people aren’t more likely to get approvals they’re not getting, even if it is for a lesser amount.
“Think again” Yea I’m sure that’s comforting to those paying more in rent than their planned mortgages would cost for a house they would actually own.
There’s no long-term future for young people in NZ if aspiring FHBs are the ones told to live with a problem they had no part in causing, and I can assure you we’ll go back to 50,000p.a.
Your point would have more merit if there was any proof that restricting FHB credit did anything for price action, instead of just making it harder for them to buy in isolation.
And to this govts credit, they have moved in this direction – non ded of interest, ring fencing losses, bright line, tenant rights, standards etc.
Now that some serious risks are developing these groups are looking at every possible way to avoid losses, including to government and the RBNZ.
Its not meant to impact the property market, its meant to stop lenders taking advantage of vulnerable people.
But there have been a few times in the past where the bank was a bit skeptical about lending us money as we were temporarily a single income family with a stay at home mum .
And either way at the end of the day it should be “hey we really don’t think you can afford this, you may lose your house, are you really sure you want to” rather than “no”, because adults should be allowed to make such decisions for themselves.
It would be helpful if the two newspapers that are printing stories for the mortgage brokers and their interest group actually investigate what is going on.
The shock here for people is the new law seems to force banks to consider whether people can actually repay the debt thereby covering their personal risk .
Why should you have to prove anything? If you think you can afford it and the bank thinks you are of little risk to them, where is the issue? The real problem was loan sharks charging financially illiterate people 20+% interest rates, why try and fix other problems that don’t exist.
It’s also true that sometimes banks are secretly or publicly pro this type of change because there is a prisoners dilemma between banks and the only way to solve it is regulation by government.
Banks know the actual situation as they process lending with greater diligence, which they should have done in the first place.
Well the Omicron impact, has a fair percentage of mention in all of that.
Very dry where we are , haven’t had a drop since the big dump in early December that wiped out about 20-30% of our crop before it had a chance to germinate.
Well, given that the piece avoids the bigger picture – CC being merely a symptom of the greater malaise – I’d say none.
That’s true, but the carbon credits belong to the land owner, and locally owned drystock farms are being bought by foreign owners for carbon farming.
The reason the landowner is receiving carbon credits is because they are reducing NZ’s financial obligations under the Paris Agreement.
I’d also like to see more collaboration between fonterra and the govt to shift to electric boilers.
Wind farms are “must run” assets, which means they bid into the market at $0 /MWh, and usually see their best generation off-peak, like in the middle of the night.
You’re right- according to NIWA the wind picks up at around 9am and peaks at 3pm, dropping off from there until 8pm.
If you follow their NZX releases, Genesis are scrambling to build their renewable portfolio.
As below, this is what the NZ battery project is looking at.
As I understand it, current Nuclear plants don’t fit well in NZ due to the requirements for backup power in case of a fault .
Or, 7 of the small molten salt reactors China is planning would replace Huntly, with less toxic waste and more safety than old tech nuclear like Fukushima.
You need that amount of capacity again to provide backup for unexpected outages, suitably distributed across the two islands in case the cable faults.
“There have also been significant capital inflows by overseas forestry investors.
The CCCFA is all about Responsible Lending.
On the micro side, we’re hearing stories about people who may have been able to buy before but can’t now, and by the time the advice from MBIE makes banks act sensibly, house prices could have risen so much that the buyers miss out on home ownership forever.
The rest? Just statistics for the policy makers, and they’d likely switch with the people wanting to buy so all up the country would be better off.
Meanwhile, a top Fed official confirmed they are fully engaged in fighting the inflation threat, confirming they have abandoned the ‘transitory’ view.
Yes, to maintain the upside risk that inflation dies down after all.