The Sure Thing: Why the Rays Extended Baseball’s Next Phenom

Baseball history is riddled with cautionary tales of would-be Hall of Fame hitting careers that never were.

But the Rays are taking a very low risk because of this historical fact: Hitters who excel in the majors at a very young age go on to have great careers at a very high rate.

He is 20 years old and guaranteed $182 million, with a chance to earn $223 million if the Rays exercise the option year and if he reaches MVP voting escalator clauses.

Franco is affordable to every team through his arbitration years, and his free-agent years are valued at a reasonable $25 million starting six years from now, when he hits his prime.

The contract should become even more affordable to Tampa Bay over its lifetime because the team’s lease at Tropicana Field expires after 2027.

of the Blue Jays, who this year hit 48 home runs, the most by any hitter as young as 22 while hitting .311 and striking out only 15.8% of his plate appearances.

The trickier mega-contracts on the horizon are possible extensions for Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, not only because they are great players but also because they are two of the game’s most valuable player assets.

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