So what has happened to my EWP point of view? It has essentially remained the same, but the recent rally since then has left the door open for the Bears to sell BTC down to ideally $54-60K before the Bulls can declare victory.
Figure 1A shows the Bullish option for BTC, which is still a probable possibility.
What does that mean? The BTC Bears still have a chance to bring the price back down to $54-60K in a final wave-i at high at $63544 is then called an “irregular flat.” These are tricky as the “dead cat bounce” surpasses the initial top, wrong-footing everyone in thinking the subsequent rally has started only to see price move in the opposite direction.
Why? Because then there can be no Bullish wave-1, 2, i, ii set up , then the Bullish setup is entirely in play, and $90K should be next after a pit stop at around $78K.
But the latter also tells us to expect higher prices soon after because there’s a lot of liquidity pumped into BTC, which will have to find its way through the system.
Bottom line: A month ago, I correctly anticipated a pullback, but two weeks later, I found that “the retreat fell a bit short of the ideal target zone of $53+/-2K.” Now, with BTC essentially trading at the same price levels as two weeks ago, the Bears still have an option to trigger a drop to ideally $54-60.