Negotiators must now hammer out the specifics that will determine if COP26 will be written into history as a success or failure.
“The first week of COP26 has resulted in a lot of promises to curb the climate crisis,” said Brian Wygal, director of environmental studies and sciences at Adelphi University.
Critics like Greta Thunberg and thousands of other young environmental activists who filled the streets outside the conference charge that the fix is already in.
For example, with a 1.5-degree rise in temperature, 14 percent of the world’s population would be exposed to severe heat at least once every five years, and an ice-free Arctic summer would happen at least every 100 years.
Six years ago, leaders who gathered in Paris did agree to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, but each country was to set its own goals — called nationally determined contributions — for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and responding to the threats of climate change.
The signatories of the Paris Agreement agreed to submit updated NDCs every five years, and ahead of this year’s conference, 118 countries had done so.
Even for those that did commit to strengthening their climate policies at COP26, there is no guarantee that they will make good on their commitments unless an enforcement mechanism is created.
However, several Asian countries — especially China — stand in the way.
India, Indonesia, Japan, and Vietnam, along with China, are responsible for 80 percent of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to Carbon Tracker.
Since the Paris Agreement was adopted, the price of renewable energy worldwide has fallen significantly, leaving less reason for countries to justify their continued reliance on fossil fuels.
Costs for several types of green power are decreasing.
Developed nations agreed more than a decade ago that by 2020, they would collectively give $100 billion a year to developing nations to help them mitigate — and adapt to — climate change.
But even $100 billion is not enough, according to Kingsmill Bond, an energy strategist at Carbon Tracker.
Kerry agrees that the $100 billion is just a fraction of what’s needed.
Developing countries are also pressuring rich nations to pay for their past emissions.
In some cases, where the governments of rich countries have left a gap between what they say and what they do, the private sector has stepped up to the plate.
In March of this year, the Green Climate Fund approved just over $1 billion for 15 climate mitigation and adaptation projects in developing countries.
A lot of times we’re pushing policies that are not locally appropriate or helpful,” said Daniel Beers, an associate professor in the department of justice studies at James Madison University, whose research focuses on global poverty and humanitarian aid.
“To me, justice looks like the bigger, more powerful countries — not just North America and Europe, but some of the middle-income countries — taking responsibility for the share of the problem that they’ve created and not requiring that small, under-resourced countries make the same changes at the same pace that they will,” he said.
But the rules are complicated, and if delegates fail to work through the nuanced issues of carbon credits, rich countries could end up using them as a way to avoid taking real action.
Bangladesh’s low-lying lands, dense population, poor infrastructure, and heavy reliance on farming put its people at risk, especially when rising seas increase the land’s salt content, wiping out crops.
Half a world away, the Netherlands is also experiencing sea level rise and flooding, which threaten to leave the country entirely underwater sometime in the next century.
In January, the two countries, joined by the UK, Egypt, Malawi, Saint Lucia, and the UNDP, formed the Adaptation Action Coalition, which has grown to 38 member countries.
President Joe Biden has had to patch up America’s reputation at COP26, as the US is the only country to have left and rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement.
Congress recently passed an infrastructure bill, including $47 billion in funds for climate resilience, which will help Americans prepare for the rising number of extreme weather events.