Morning Market Review for July 19, 2021

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Harvest in Brazil’s center-south region remains about 13% behind last year’s paces as planting delays pushed back the timeline for the South American country’s safrina corn crop.

For the week ending July 18, 56% of the crop had reached the silking phase, up 30% from the previous week on the showers and moderate temperatures and 4% higher than the five-year average.

This time a year ago, ending stocks for new crop corn hovered around 2.6 billion bushels.

Two consecutive years of production issues could be followed by a third as global demand for grain sky rockets, Advance Trading’s Brady Huck writes.

But prices were back on the rise this morning as traders weigh hot and dry weather that could hinder yield prospects against rising global demand for the oilseed.

Soy crushing margins in China are slipping back into the red and African swine fever continues to take a toll, albeit a minor one, on the Chinese hog herd – both of which present bearish potential to U.S.

For the month of June, China’s General Administration of Customs showed soybean import paces from Brazil easing slightly relative to June 2020 paces.

But falling hog prices have deterred farmers away from heavy protein supplements in livestock rations over the past few months.

shores later this fall, many are expecting a slightly less voluminous export season relative to last year due to the slim crush margins in China.

With the prospects of lower pig weights and unprofitable crush margins in China, global soybean prices could face some upward resistance going forward as Chinese livestock feeders continue to turn to wheat and corn as alternative feed sources to nourish its hog herd.

The 2021 soybean crop continues to mature at paces ahead of historical benchmarks as heat stress in a large part of the growing region continues to stunt development – and potentially yields.

About 23% of the soybean crop was setting pods as of July 18, 2% higher than the five-year average.

Heat stress in Russia’s top wheat-producing region in the South could threaten the world’s largest exporter’s ability to adequately – and cheaply – provide wheat to the rest of the world over the next 12 months.

Spring wheat production will hit a 33-year low this year.

Winter wheat harvest is finally catching up with historical benchmarks after excessive rain showers slowed harvest progress early in the season.

As of last Friday, the soft red winter wheat harvest was 90% complete while hard red winter wheat harvest was just shy of 40% complete.

Drought in the Pacific Northwest will create favorable harvest conditions for white wheat farmers this week, where harvest stands at just under 10% compete as of July 16.

spring wheat crop last week as crop ratings tumbled 5% to 11% good to excellent for the week ending July 18.

While producers report some fields that look adequate, depending on timely moisture and planting date, persistent heat stress is expected to result in lower than average yields and above average protein contents.

Clear skies will prevail across the Midwest today, though chances for scattered showers in the Upper Midwest remain possible, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts.

Ambassador Tai listened to dairy farmers who have struggled in the wake of the Trump-era trade disputes and pandemic, reassuring the crowd that dairy farmers will have a voice as trade policy is discussed in the future.

“We’re thrilled the ambassador could visit the farm to see for herself how America’s dairy farmers are producing for the global marketplace,” Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S.

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