As we’ve learned in recent years, there’s more than enough randomness with the flattened lottery odds giving more teams a real crack at the top four selections.
Tough-minded Jalen Suggs and explosive scorer Jalen Green are strong backcourt options, and Jonathan Kuminga may have the best physical tools in the draft.
We’ll have a mock draft coming following the lottery results, and much more draft coverage on the way over the next five weeks.
So while they have a better than 50% chance of drafting in the top four, there’s still a 47.9% chance the Rockets don’t pick in the lottery at all, in which case they’ll receive Miami’s No.
But the chance to walk away with a premium prospect in the fold versus … not doing that? These are weighty circumstances.
What’s at stake: The Pistons share top odds with the Rockets and Magic, and can draft no lower than sixth, which means this will be the highest Detroit has picked since 2002’s ill-fated selection of Darko Miličić at No.
Detroit is in the early stages of a long-term plan and successfully hit on last year’s selections of Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey in the top 20.
What’s at stake: Orlando shares the best possible lottery odds, but its pick has a wider range of outcomes than Houston and Detroit: There’s a 14.8% chance the Magic pick fifth, a 26% chance they pick sixth and a 7.1% chance they fall to seventh.
Considering the circumstances, my read on the situation is that Orlando could move on from one or more of its current young players, particularly if it picks twice in the lottery and takes another guard.
What’s at stake: Although it requires some wishful thinking, the Thunder are the only team with a chance at landing two top-five picks, creating a range of fascinating scenarios that could alter the fate of the franchise.
Lost in the dialogue surrounding Sam Presti’s hoarding of future picks is that the Thunder actually haven’t selected in the top 10 since 2009.
Collin Sexton has tangibly improved, but is still more scorer than point guard, and it’s still a little early to make a final call on Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro, but none of those picks has been true home runs, and the sense around the NBA is that Koby Altman’s front office is feeling some pressure.
If they choose to stay the course with their core players, this becomes an obvious situational fit for Jonathan Kuminga or Scottie Barnes, although the lack of shooting in the frontcourt could just as easily dissuade Cleveland from either player.
The quality of the top prospects in this draft and the urgency for the Wolves to improve their roster emphasize the need for some immediate good fortune.
Minnesota can only draft in the top three, which makes speculating on their potential selection much easier: Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and to a lesser extent, Jalen Suggs would all be terrific additions.
What’s at stake: After what amounted to a lost season playing home games in Tampa, the Raptors have an opportunity for some consolation via the draft, with a reasonable, if unlikely chance at drafting in the top four.
Any of the top prospects would be a strong addition here, and there’s a definite need at point guard, with Coby White a natural scorer who’s likely best suited as a sixth man.
Sacramento may not be able to directly address anything immediate with this pick, but the duo of De’Aaron Fox and Haliburton should place the emphasis on building a better frontcourt, particularly with Marvin Bagley still a bit of an enigma.
What’s at stake: The Pelicans have the same top-four odds as the Bulls and Kings, but came out on the wrong end of the tiebreaker and have a 60.6% chance of drafting 10th.
LaMelo Ball, the newly minted rookie of the year, will be the central roster element to consider here, with an obvious need at center, which has been something of a black hole for the organization in recent years.
Drafting in the late lottery may actually be a better value proposition than in the 6–9 range this year, and given what San Antonio needs, it’s not a bad spot at all.
They need a new coach, but Indiana seems likely to push for the playoffs given the amount of returning talent, and that could ostensibly influence how it decides to draft.
Given the urgency to return to the playoffs as Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green near the final stage of their careers, the Warriors certainly won’t complain if they luck out here, but the other question is how many young guys they really want to roster next season, with James Wiseman still very much in a nascent stage of development.