The Brooklyn Nets host the Milwaukee Bucks, with the winner set to advance to the Eastern Conference finals.
William Hill Sportsbook lists Brooklyn as a 1.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215 in the latest Nets vs.
The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference semifinals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season.
Even when scuffling on offense, the Bucks have been able to clamp down on Brooklyn’s league-leading offense, and Milwaukee has received high-level contributions from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton in the last two victories.
The Bucks also put pressure on the offensive glass, grabbing 28.1 percent of their own misses in the series, and they hold a size and physicality advantage against the undermanned Nets.
Beyond that, the Nets are holding Milwaukee to a brutal 1.02 points per possession in the first six games, and they are grabbing 75.6 percent of available defensive rebounds to deter the Bucks from generating second-chance opportunities.
Milwaukee is turning the ball over on 14.2 percent of their offensive possessions in the series, and the Nets are holding the Bucks to just a 51.8 percent true shooting mark that would be near the bottom of the NBA over a broader sample.