Gold price to fall $200 by year-end despite stronger physical demand, says Capital Economics

The firm’s bearish outlook on gold remains well intact despite the precious metal’s attempts to once again breach the $1,800 an ounce level.

During the first quarter, most of the demand was driven by the world’s two major consumers of physical gold.

On top of that, recent trade data is showing a rise in imports, with India’s March gold imports, for example, coming in at their highest level since 2013.

“The upshot is that consumer demand for gold responds to changes in the price much more than the gold price responds to changes in consumer demand.

“Imports may have been boosted by seasonal stockpiling and delayed purchases from earlier months given expectations for a cut to gold import duties, which was announced in February.

“We expect both to weigh on the price of gold over the next year or so.

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